Off-Market Signals · by DFX Intel

Find companies ready to sell before they go to market.

Predictive acquisition intelligence for independent sponsors, PE firms, and strategic acquirers. Multi-source signal fusion identifies sellers before bankers do.

Signal Categories
6
Data Sources
9+
Scoring Dimensions
5
Input Modes
4
Coverage
US
Deployments
01Multi-source ingestion
02Entity resolution
03AI synthesis
§ 02 / SIGNAL ENGINESix signal categories

Six signal categories. One fused intelligence layer.

Every scan ingests data across six distinct signal categories. Individually suggestive - together, they form a conviction-grade picture of sell-side readiness.

SIGNAL 01

Ownership Transition

Founder aging, generational transfer, partner disputes, estate planning signals. Identifies businesses approaching natural ownership inflection points.

SIGNAL 02

Financial Distress

Declining revenue, credit deterioration, covenant pressure, litigation exposure. Surfaces companies under financial strain that may need a capital event.

SIGNAL 03

Growth Stall

Flat revenue, market saturation, talent attrition, slowing hiring. Detects companies that have plateaued and may be open to strategic alternatives.

SIGNAL 04

Strategic Misalignment

Non-core divisions, corporate refocusing, post-merger orphans. Finds assets trapped inside organizations that no longer prioritize them.

SIGNAL 05

Behavioral Signals

CFO hiring, advisor engagement, website changes, leadership departures. Tracks behavioral patterns that precede sell-side activity by 6-18 months.

SIGNAL 06

Market Timing

Sector M&A cycles, interest rate windows, regulatory shifts, buyer appetite surges. Identifies macro conditions that compress seller timelines.

§ 03 / SCORING ENGINEFive dimensions · one composite

Quantified conviction. Not gut feel.

Every target is scored across five independent dimensions, then fused into a single composite Off-Market Opportunity Score with a clear verdict.

01

Exit Likelihood Score

0 - 100

Probability that the target company will enter a sale process within the next 6-24 months. Derived from ownership signals, financial trajectory, and behavioral indicators.

02

Distress Pressure Score

0 - 100

Degree of financial or operational pressure forcing a transaction. Higher scores indicate urgency - bankruptcy risk, covenant breaches, or cash flow deterioration.

03

Timing Score

0 - 100

How immediate is the opportunity window? Factors in advisor engagement, process indicators, and macro timing to estimate time-to-market.

04

Buyer Fit Score

0 - 100

Relevance of the target to your specific acquisition criteria - sector, size, geography, and strategic fit. Customized per scan configuration.

05

Access Score

0 - 100

Ease of outreach and likelihood of engagement. Considers intermediary presence, ownership accessibility, and competitive dynamics around the target.

COMPOSITE SCORE

DFX Off-Market Opportunity Score

A weighted fusion of all five scoring dimensions into a single 0-100 composite. Calibrated against historical deal outcomes to maximize signal-to-noise. Every target receives a score and a verdict tier.

VERDICT TIERS
#
VERDICT
MEANING
01
HIGH CONVICTION
Multiple strong signals converge. Immediate outreach recommended.
02
STRONG SIGNAL
Clear indicators present. Add to active pipeline and monitor.
03
MONITOR
Early signals detected. Track for signal strengthening over 3-6 months.
04
WEAK SIGNAL
Isolated or ambiguous indicators. Low priority - revisit next cycle.
05
NO SIGNAL
No meaningful sell-side indicators detected at this time.
§ 04 / DATA SOURCES9+ feeds · real-time ingestion

Nine sources. One fused signal.

We ingest from public records, financial filings, employment data, court systems, corporate registries, and behavioral indicators. Entity resolution stitches it all together.

SOURCE 01

SEC EDGAR

Ownership changes, Form D filings, insider transactions, beneficial ownership reports

SOURCE 02

CourtListener

Litigation filings, bankruptcy proceedings, distress indicators, judgments

SOURCE 03

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment trends, mass layoff events, QCEW data, wage trajectory

SOURCE 04

Federal Reserve

Credit conditions, interest rate environment, lending standards, macro outlook

SOURCE 05

OpenCorporates

Entity data, officer changes, ownership structure, subsidiary mapping

SOURCE 06

Job Boards

Hiring velocity, CFO/CRO searches, headcount changes, role pattern analysis

SOURCE 07

GNews

M&A rumors, leadership changes, strategic reviews, sector deal flow

SOURCE 08

IRS 990

Nonprofit financials, board turnover, compensation shifts, revenue trajectory

SOURCE 09

Website Analysis

Site staleness, team page changes, digital presence decay, technology signals

§ 05 / DELIVERABLESWhat lands on your desk

Pipeline-ready intelligence.

Not a data dump. A structured intelligence report designed for deal teams - scored targets, signal breakdowns, and a clear action plan you can execute on immediately.

01
Executive Summary

IC-memo style overview with thesis, key findings, and recommended actions.

02
Top Targets with Scores

Ranked list of highest-opportunity targets with composite scores and individual signal breakdowns.

03
Signal Heatmap

Visual matrix showing signal strength across all categories for every identified target.

04
Market Intelligence

Sector-level context including recent deal comps, buyer activity, and valuation benchmarks.

05
Opportunity Clusters

Thematic groupings of targets by signal pattern - distress cluster, transition cluster, timing cluster.

06
Action Plan

Prioritized outreach recommendations with suggested approach strategy and timing for each target.

07
PDF Export

Presentation-ready report formatted for IC decks, partnership meetings, and deal team distribution.

§ 06 / INPUT MODESFour ways to scan

Start from anywhere.

Whether you’re exploring a new sector, refining a thesis, diligencing a known target, or scoring a bulk list - the engine adapts to your workflow.

MODE 01

Industry + Geography

Define a sector and region. We scan the full universe for off-market signals - ideal for building new pipeline in unfamiliar markets.

MODE 02

Target Profile

Describe your ideal acquisition: revenue range, EBITDA, employee count, characteristics. We find companies matching that profile showing sell signals.

MODE 03

Known Company

Already have a target in mind? We run a deep signal scan on a specific entity to quantify off-market likelihood and optimal approach timing.

MODE 04

Batch Mode

Upload a CSV of companies or domains. We score the entire list in parallel and return a ranked, prioritized pipeline with full signal detail.

§ 07 / ENGAGERun your first scan

Find your next deal before the market does.

Define your criteria, pick an input mode, and let the signal engine do the rest. Scored targets, ranked pipeline, and an action plan - delivered in minutes.